The Iranians demand revenge for the murder of their main strategist. But how?

ISTANBUL (NRK): When the United States liquidated Iran's most powerful general on Trump's orders, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei promised brutal revenge. But what opportunities do Iranians have?

For more than 20 years, Qasem Soleimani drew the strings without knowing much about him. After fighting in the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, he volunteered to serve in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. From 1998 he led the Quds Force, Revolution Gardens elite group operating outside Iran's borders.

The past 20 years, General Soleimani has built up Iranally supported Milises and acquired allies throughout the Middle East. Thus, he ensured that Iran gained considerable political influence and military power in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. He was of Iran's most powerful men.

When Iran struck against its enemies through its allerte, it was on the orders of General Soleimani.

Now the murder of Iran's most important military strategist is to be retaliated. But how?

Avenge his former boss?

The man who used to make the decisions is dead.

Esmail Qaani takes over the leadership of the Quds force after Soleimani, and perhaps it is him who gives the order to avenge his former boss.

Iran has more opportunities and planned the final settlement with the United States for decades. But what STRATEGI will the Irans leaders go for?

Iran can either respond with several minor attacks over time or choose itself an equal strategic goal as the US did 3. January. But taking the life of a Central American politician or general can have greater consequences than anyone wants. The United States is also a NATO country.

Neither Iran nor the United States wants a full war.

Conversely, the two enemies prefer to fight as before, on the land of others and through intermediaries, as in Iraq.

Will Hezbollah attack Israel?

General Soleimani created impactful "middlemen" in the form of militancy to strengthen Iran's grip in the Middle East. One of them is Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Through Hezbollah, Iran can attack America's closest allies. The Shiite militia has bases in southern Lebanon at the border of Israel and has attacked Israel several times as in 2006.

Then the militia killed THREE IDF soldiers and kidnapped two. Israel saw this as a declaration of war and went to war against Lebanon, which allowed the Hezbollah to attack Israel from its territory.

But attacking Israel is risky, for Israel will not hesitate to respond with powerful funds also inside Iran.

Prime Minister Netanyahu fights for his political life now and needs external enemies more than ever.

U.S. bases are postponed

Besides the embassy in Baghdad, the United States also has a consulate in Erbil, in Kurdish northern Iraq.

In addition, a large number of Americans work in the oil industry in the country.

In Iraq, Iranian-supported militia groups in the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) umbrella organization, better known as al-Hashd al Shabi can be ordered to attack Us bases, soldiers or interests in the country.

It has, after all, to judge happened before in 1983, when strong forces would prevent the United States from interfering in the civil war in Lebanon.

Then a suicide bomber drove a car fully loaded by explosives to The United states Embassy in Beirut. 63 people were killed. Islamic Jihad, a group of ties to Iranian-backed Hezbollah, took on the responsibility. But like so often, if Iran was behind, they left no daming evidence.

U.S. troops live dangerously

When Donald Trump decided to pull the United States troops out of northern Syria, he still left a group to guard the oil installations northeast of the country.

Will Iran strike against these vulnerable soldiers through its allies?

In particular, in Syria and Iraq, Iran is strongly present militarily and politically.

Will Iran strike against U.S. 5000 troops in Iraq?

The United States also has forces in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the Emirates. And Iran has milises in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria.

But aware of the danger of US nationals throughout The Middle East now, many homes are to be called.

United States ' alllisted

Iran may also come to strike Against US Arab allies in the Middle East, which is nevertheless Iran's enemies. Sunni Saudi Arabia is the largest rival in the Shiite of Iran.

In September 2019, some two facilities attacked the heart of Saudi Arabia's state oil production Saudi Aramco. The Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have close ties with Iran, took on the responsibility.

Was it Iran's Revolutionary Guards who had given the order? No one knows for sure.

But attacking Saudi Arabia can open to a regional big war, which throws an already explosive and war-torn region into a new conflict, which also gets major consequences for the oil market and the world economy.

Will Iran turns to the Strait of Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz between the Gulf of Oman and The Persian Gulf is strategic and important for the world economy. 20 percent of the world's crude oil is transported on ships through the narrow strait along Iran's coast.

Both the United States and the US allies have a large number of oil tankers and naval ships that are easy targets for Iran in this waters. But if Iran attacks an American ship, the United States can respond by attacking Iran's oil installations on land.

When two ships were attacked in the Gulf of Oman in the summer of 2019, no one took blame. Iran rejected the fact that they were behind. The United States thought that the Revolutionary Guard carried out the attacks, but there was no other evidence. But the incident created a lot of international unrest.

Iran has the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz for traffic, which will send the oil price to heaven. But the Iranians calculate enough carefully what the response will be, before they avenge the deaths of one of their most important military strategists. Iran that is burdened by economic sanctions must also consider what the U.S. response to Iran's retaliation will be.

Currently, Irans and the USA's leaders mostly on Twitter.

And Trump threatens more attacks and revenge for the Amerian hostages Iran held for 444 days 40 years ago .

Will Jewish targets be affected?

Iran's toughest enemy in the Middle East is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition partners. Both Israeli and Jewish targets outside the Middle East may be relevant again.

In 1994, a Jewish centre in Buenos Aires was struck by a powerful bomb. 85 people lost their lives and 300 were injured. Argentine authorities issued an arrest warrant for Iran's then president Rafsanjani and seven others. Argentina believed that Hezbollah performed the assault on orders from Iran, some Iranian leaders have denied.

The attack in Argentina showed that Iran's supporters can strike targets throughout the world.

But if Iran were to choose a similar symbolic objective, the prestry could expect harsh reactions from Israel.

The loss of such a powerful Iranian military strategist requires retribution, is modest from Tehran. The answer comes in a few days or weeks.