It will not be a traditional war!
Both the United States and Iran have allies
that can join a major war in the region.
US liquidation of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani (62) on Friday
has led to a rampant escalation in the tense US-Iran conflict. Soleimani was
considered Iran's second most powerful person, and was, among other things,
responsible for the country's defense strategy.
LAST: The US force in Iraq has informed the military
authorities in the country that they are preparing to travel. The United
Kingdom also brings home embassy staff from Iran and Iraq.
On Sunday, the killed general was hailed by hundreds of
thousands of Iranians who said goodbye to him while carrying the coffin through
Tehran. On Monday, tributes continued during a memorial in the capital.
Iran has sworn revenge on the US for the Soleimani killing,
while President Donald Trump has threatened to hit 52 Iranian targets if
Iranians decide to retaliate.
If full war breaks out between Iran and the United States,
there is a danger that more parties will be involved in the conflict.
These are the United States and Iran's allies
Middle East expert and senior researcher at NUPI, Kjetil
Selvik, says both the US and Iran have allies that could be drawn into a
possible conflict.
- Who are the US allies in the region in the event of a
possible military conflict with Iran, Selvik?
- It is primarily Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates. But then there are other countries that have US military bases, such
as Qatar and Kuwait. Compared to the first three - Israel, Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates - Qatar and Kuwait have tried to have some kind of middle
position. But should a military conflict occur, the fact that they have US
military bases makes it clear that they will end up on the US side, Selvik told
Nettavisen.
Also read: Iran tearing apart new part of nuclear deal
Selvik says Jordan also has close ties to the United States,
but he is unsure how they would relate to a possible major war in the region.
- Who are Iran's allies?
- Iran's allies are primarily non-governmental groups, such
as Hezbollah in Lebanon. The countries closest to Iran are Iraq and Syria. Iraq
wants to stay away, while Syria does not have much to contribute because they
have more to secure their own survival, says Selvik.
- What about Hamas on the Gaza Strip?
"If a confrontation were to include a war with Israel,
it is obvious which side Hamas would stand on," says Selvik.
- What significance will the major powers Russia and China
have in any major US-Iran conflict?
- Russia would have a role as Iran's most important military
partner. Iran and Russia have developed closer cooperation through the Syrian
conflict. Not many people believe that Russia would come to the rescue of Iran,
but they would have been on Iran's side of the UN Security Council and could
provide arms support and other military supplies. China is less likely to
engage in military. But China is also likely to support Iran in the Security
Council, says Selvik.
Both Russia and China are permanent members of the Security
Council and can thus veto sanctions proposals.
- The risk of major conflict is greater than for a long time
- Do you think there is likely to be a major conflict in the
region where allies of the US and Iran are also involved?
- It is difficult to assess the probability, but let's say
the danger is greater than it has been in a long time, because Iran has been
under severe economic pressure for quite a long time. This starting point has
created anger and frustration in Iran. A trigger that killed Soleimani, who was
an Iranian symbol and a very central figure in the regime, sets strong emotions
in the swing, he says.
Doubts on NATO contributions
The United States is, as is known, the largest military
contributor to the NATO Alliance. NATO expert and senior researcher at NUPI,
Karsten Friis, doubts that any conflict between Iran and the US in the Middle
East could trigger NATO's Article 5.
In short, Article 5 of the NATO Defense Pact means that any
attack on a NATO member state should be considered an attack on all NATO member
states.
- What is needed to trigger NATO's Article 5, Friis?
- The formal action is that a war action must be taken and
the party concerned convenes a meeting of the North Atlantic Council and asks
the other member states to assist. NATO's Article 5 is not automatically
triggered, even with a scenario where tanks are rolling across the border.
Article 5 is vaguely worded and requires political will, Friis tells
Nettavisen.
Also read: These are Iran's possible revenge options
Friis does not believe that a possible Iranian attack on a
US embassy will be sufficient grounds for the United States to ask the
organization for military support, but he does not rule out that some NATO
countries that are members of the coalition against IS may be involved.
- So you don't think NATO as an organization can get
involved in a major war in the Middle East?
- No I do not think so. But that important NATO countries
could be involved in acts of violence is conceivable. We do not know what Iran
will do, says Friis.
- It is important to distinguish between NATO countries and
NATO as an organization. Several NATO countries, including Norway, cooperate
closely with US military bases in the region, where the fight against IS (the
Islamic State) has been the framework.
- It won't be a traditional war. Iran cannot hit the US
mainland, but only their bases. It is a bit limited what such a war can lead to
and how big it can become, he says.
Urgent meeting in NATO
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Monday convened
an emergency meeting in NATO to discuss the tense situations following the
Soleimani liquidation.
- It is natural for NATO to talk about this, but at the same
time there is political disagreement between European countries and the United
States. Europe has not exactly rejoiced that the US has liquidated Soleimani,
says Friis.
- The meeting that takes place today has a secondary
function. There are first and foremost political discussions. The secondary
effect is to show that NATO is not brain dead, Friis says, referring to French
President Emmanuel Macron's comment on NATO's lack of political will in the
Syrian conflict.
NATO's Article 5 has only been triggered once during the
Alliance's 70-year history. It happened after the terrorist attacks in the
United States on September 11 in 2001.
- Then it was the other NATO countries who took the
initiative themselves in the North Atlantic Council. This was more of an offer
to the United States for assistance. And as the war in Afghanistan developed,
this was a welcome for the United States, says Friis.
- Allies fear retaliation
Over the past decades, often through General Suleimani, Iran
has worked intensively to forge close ties with armed groups in Gaza, Lebanon,
Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Many of these allied groups are within reach to attack
US allies in the region, as well as US forces in the area, writes The New York
Times.
Many fear that Iran could avenge the liquidation of
Soleimani by attacking US allies in the region, rather than directly attacking
the US, which will trigger a spiral of violence with the superpower, the
newspaper writes.
- The whole region is very nervous, as we are in unplowed
soil. It is absolutely impossible to know what will happen next, because
anything can be a goal, says senior researcher and Middle East expert at the New
America Foundation, Taufiq Rahim, to The New York Times.
Although many of the United States allies in the region are
satisfied that the Americans took the life of Soleimani, they are particularly
careful to pay tribute to the killing.
- Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states are completely silent.
They do not want to stir up the Iranians, because the situation in the region
is so delicate, so divisive, so sensitive, that one does not want to pour
gasoline on the fire, Saudi Arabian Khalid al-Dakhil told the same newspaper.
Facts about Qasem Soleimani
* Born March 11, 1957, son of an Iranian farmer.
* Worked in youth as a construction worker, joined after the
Revolution in 1979 to the Revolutionary Garden.
* Rapidly rose in the ranks during the Iraq-Iran war in the
1980s, where he was also seriously wounded.
* Established close cooperation with Kurdish and Shiite
militia groups in Iraq during the war.
* After the war, he was given command of the Revolutionary
Guards forces in Kerman Province, where he gained great recognition for
cracking down on extensive heroin smuggling from Afghanistan.
* In 1998, was appointed Commander-in-Chief of the
Revolutionary Guard's elite force, the Quds Force.
* The Quds force is believed to have between 10,000 and
20,000 members, who conduct special operations and intelligence operations in
Iran's neighboring countries and elsewhere in the world.
* The force, under Soleimani's command, has been central to
Iraq and Syria's defeat of far-flung groups such as IS and al-Qaeda.
* Soleimani is considered the chief architect of Iran's
support for the regime in Syria, militia groups in Iraq, as well as groups like
Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine.
* Were liquidated in a targeted US drone attack at the
airport in Iraq's capital Baghdad on January 3.
Nadir Munir Khan
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